Private credit fundraising reached $209 billion in 2024, a 5% increase over 2023 totals, and that trend shows no signs of slowing, according to the With Intelligence Private Credit Outlook 2025, released today. With everyone from the world’s largest banks and asset managers to major pension and sovereign wealth funds angling to get a piece of the action, With Intelligence projects a surge in acquisitions of specialists in the private debt space, with a particular focus on direct lending and specialty finance. Additional growth areas of focus include significant risk transfer (SRT) deals and net asset value (NAV) loans.
“One need look no further than Goldman Sachs’ recent Capital Solutions Group launch to see the clear evidence that the world’s largest institutional investors are gearing up to build substantial positions in the private credit marketplace,” said Samuel Dale, research lead, private markets, at With Intelligence. “Based on our research, we are now entering a period of consolidation in the space, where large firms will choose to ‘buy’ over ‘build’ to rapidly acquire specialist talent and expertise in alternative credit—ultimately spurring a surge in new acquisitions.”
Highlights in the With Intelligence Private Credit Outlook 2025
Consolidation and the Rise of the “Mega Fund”
In 2024, just five funds accounted for two-thirds of all direct lending fundraising and over 40% of all private credit fundraising for the year. That concentration of capital, talent, and track record around a handful of “mega funds” is driving a push to consolidation that will spur increased acquisition activity in the private credit marketplace in 2025.
Direct Lending and Specialty Credit Poised to Grow
With Intelligence’s recent Intentions and Preferences survey reveals that LPs are keen to allocate to direct lending, specialty finance, and opportunistic credit strategies in 2025. Almost three-quarters of respondents indicated plans to allocate further to direct lending this year, while more than half plan to invest in specialty finance, opportunistic credit, and special situations funds.
Bank Regulation to Fuel Growth of SRTs and NAV Lending
Demand for risk transfer in response to Basel III and other regulatory pressures is fueling a surge in activity in the SRT and NAV lending spaces. The two largest ever SRT funds—from Chorus Capital and Axa IM Alts, both of which raised $2.5bn—were closed in 2024, while a half-dozen $1 billion-plus NAV lending vehicles were launched. With Intelligence projects both categories will grow substantially in 2025 as newer non-bank private credit firms enter the space.
Middle East Sovereign Wealth in the Spotlight
As Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds continue to pile resources into private credit, With Intelligence expects a continued drive by private debt managers to open offices in the region. Last year, 29 private debt firms set up shop in the Middle East—27 of them in the United Arab Emirates. Expect the region to continue to be a center of gravity for private debt markets.
To access the full With Intelligence Private Credit Outlook 2025, please click here.
